AQIM – Open Source Intelligence

AQIM Technicals, courtesy of the BBC

Al Jazeera. “AQIM.” http://www.aljazeera.com/category/organisation/aqim

Analysis Intelligence. “AQIM.” http://analysisintelligence.com/tag/aqim/

BBC. “Profile: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.” January 17, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17308138

Boudali, Lianne Kennedy. “The GSPC: The Newest Franchise in Al-Qaeda’s Global Jihad.” April 2, 2007.
http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-gspc-newest-franchise-in-al-qaidas-global-jihad

Conflict Map. “AQIM.” http://www.conflictmap.org/conflict/algeria

Department of State. “Chapter 1 — Strategic Assessment.” April 30, 2008. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2007/103704.htm

——. “Chapter 2. Country Reports: Africa Overview.” July 31, 2012. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195541.htm

——. “Designation of AQIM Leaders Mohamed Belkalem and Taleb Nail.” May 26, 2010. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/143207.htm

——. “Examining U.S. Counterterrorism Priorities, Strategy Across Africa’s Sahel Region.” November 17, 2009. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/rm/2009/132082.htm

——. “The LRA, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, AQIM, and Other Sources of Instability in Africa.” April 25, 2012. http://www.state.gov/p/af/rls/rm/2012/188518.htm

——. “LRA, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, Aqim, and Other Sources of Instability in Africa.” April 26, 2012. http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/rm/2012/188816.htm

Doyle, Mark. “Africa’s Islamic Militants ‘co-ordinate efforts’.” June 26, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18592789

Gueye, Bakari. “Africa: AQIM Threatens Sahel, Magherb Security.” allAfrica. November 8, 2013. http://allafrica.com/stories/201311110450.html

Laub, Zachary. “Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.” CFR. January 8, 2014. http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organizations-and-networks/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717

NCTC. “Al-Qa‘ida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).” 2014. http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/aqim.html

RFI. “AQIM.” http://www.english.rfi.fr/tag/aqim

U.N. “QE.T.14.01. THE ORGANIZATION OF AL-QAIDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB.” December 27, 2013. http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1267/NSQE01401E.shtml

Ansar Dine Rebels, courtesy of the BBC

Boko Haram – Open Source Intelligence

Abubakar Shekau, Boko Haram Leader, courtesy of the BBC

“Profile of Nigeria’s Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau.” BBC. June 4, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18020349
Adesoji, Abimbola. “The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria.” African Spectrum 45 no. 2 (2010). http://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/afsp/article/view/330
Boko Haram Watch. Twitter. https://twitter.com/BokoHaramWatch
Chothia, Farouk. “Who are Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamists?” BBC. January 11, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13809501
The Christian Science Monitor. “Boko Haram.” http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Boko+Haram
The Economist. “Boko Haram.” http://www.economist.com/topics/boko-haram
The Guardian. “Boko Haram.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/boko-haram
Johnson, Toni. “Boko Haram.” CFR. November 14, 2013. http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/boko-haram/p25739
Rono, Moses. “Boko Haram: Is terror designation a badge of honour?” BBC. November 15, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24959207
Ross, Will. “What ‘hostage video’ reveals about Nigeria’s Boko Haram.” BBC. February 27, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21601578
Stewart, Scott. “Is Boko Haram More Dangerous Than Ever?” STRATFOR. December 13, 2012. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/boko-haram-more-dangerous-ever
U.S. House Homeland Security Committee Report. “Boko Haram: Growing Threat to the U.S. Homeland” [PDF]. September 13, 2013. http://homeland.house.gov/boko-haram-growing-threat-us-homeland
Verini, James. “Northern Nigerian Conflict.” National Geographic. November 2013. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/11/northern-nigeria/verini-text
Walker, Andrew. “What is Boko Haram?” United States Institute of Peace. May 30, 2012. http://www.usip.org/publications/what-boko-haram

 

AQ in Northern Africa, courtesy of the BBC

European Union Troops Given the United Nations Green Light for the Central African Republic

Former Seleka militants sit in a truck as they are escorted out of Kasai military camp in Bangui on January 28, 2014 (AFP, Issouf Sanogo)

“Central African Republic: UN ‘may need 10,000 troops’.” BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25935064

AFP. “UN backs EU force in Central Africa amid troops push.” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hFy6QAeZ4YqPphReP95IQNy6Cw5w?hl=en&docId=913d64db-50f7-4a31-9bbd-0c50070e8f29&index=0

Nichols, Michelle. “Central African Republic Wants U.N. Force as EU Troops OKed.” Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/28/us-centralafrican-eu-un-idUSBREA0R1FD20140128

VOA News. “UN Approves Additional Troops in CAR.” VOA. http://www.voanews.com/content/un-approves-additional-troops-in-car/1839419.html

Map, courtesy of the BBC

New Constitution in Tunisia

Map of Tunisia, courtesy of University of Pennsylvania

For more information, consult:

“Tunisia assembly passes new constitution. BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25908340.

Amara, Tarek. “Arab Spring beacon Tunisia signs new constitution.” Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/27/us-tunisia-constitution-idUSBREA0Q0OU20140127.

 

Bryant, Lisa. “Lawmakers Pass Groundbreaking Constitution in Tunisia.” VOA. http://www.voanews.com/content/lawmakers-pass-groundbreaking-constitution-tunisia/1838212.html.

 

 

GEN. al-Sisi: The Next Presidet of Egypt?

GEN. Sisi T-Shirt, courtesy of the BBC

The Egyptian Interim President Adly Mansour announced that Egypt will conduct a presidential vote before polls in parliament according to Reuters. Mansour’s objective in doing this maneuver is to have a strong president be elected in order to forge parliamentary coalitions and deter violence coming from rebels in the Sinai region and in Cairo from members of the Muslim Brotherhood – labelled as a “terrorist organization” by the interim government. The current front runner, who has not announced his candidacy, is General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, the current head of the armed forces of Egypt. Former President Mohammed Morsi appointed him to the post in August 2012.

GEN. Sisi and Pres. Morsi, courtesy of the BBC

General al-Sisi, invoking the name of the Egyptian people, overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood regime in mid-2013. Al-Sisi has been described as both “charismatic” and “calm” according to the BBC. His specialty in the army after graduating from the Egyptian Military Academy was in the mechanized infantry, and later he was active in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces as head of military intelligence. He has no combat experience. Al-Sisi’s reputation in the West is split. He originally defended the infamous “virginity tests” conducted in Tahrir Square, and according to al-Ahram, he claimed it “was done to protect the girls from rape.” On the other hand, he studied in Washington and conducted training exercises with elements of the American military. Furthermore, during a later meeting with Amnesty International, he promised that the army would end the “virginity tests.” According to BBC’s Arab affairs analyst Sebastian Usher, “many Egyptians believe Gen. Sisi is the strong man the country needs, but others are concerned that if he stands and wins – which seems the likeliest outcome – it will make him too strong, giving him all but complete control.” Furthermore, the Anti-Coup Alliance, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, continues to protest Morsi’s removal, which resulted in governmental forces killing 49 people on Saturday the 25^th. Concurrently, the radical Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis militia has stepped up attacks in the Sinai, and is likely responsible for shooting down an Egyptian Army helicopter over the weekend.

GEN. Sisi and SecDef Hagel, courtesy of the BBC

            So how can General Sisi and the situation in Egypt be read? While there is hope in his popular backing that can become legitimized through the democratic process, this measure can only go so far. Unless he can find a way to mitigate the ire of the Muslim Brotherhood and peacefully incorporate them into the political process, his rule will be dependent on the use of force, like former President Mubarak. This blunt measure will gradually undermine the rights and liberties of the Egyptian people and further radicalize the Muslim Brotherhood to use more extreme and violent means.

Bibliography:

Alsharif, Asma and Shadia Nasralla. “Egypt calls early presidential election as violence spreads.” Reuters. January 26, 2014. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/26/us-egypt-politics-idUSBREA0P0GR20140126.

BBC. “Profile: Egypt armed forces chief Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.” July 3, 2013. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19256730.

BBC. “Egypt to hold presidential poll before parliamentary vote.” January 26, 2014. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25904575.

 

 

Triumph or Terror? The Iraqi Question

AQI militants, courtesy of USA Today

The terrorist network of al-Qaeda has proven to be both resilient from destruction in Iraq and prolific across the Middle East. Oren Dorell wrote in his front page USA Today article on January 13^th, “Losing Iraq,” that “many significant gains of the eight-year-long Iraq war in which more than 4,400 Americans died are now threatened.” This threat has become manifest in the al-Qaeda capture of the strategic towns of Fallujah and Ramadi in the Anbar Province. This province is especially important as it borders Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, allowing AQ elements to foment conflict across nations. The Iraqi government – a beacon of democracy in the Middle East – has been challenged with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite Muslim, politically alienating Sunni Iraqis. This divide has further stagnated responses to the terrorist threat, and caused al-Qaeda to appear appealing to disenfranchised Sunnis. Furthermore, American mass military intervention in the Middle East, has dispersed the terrorist network across the map from Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab in Africa, to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, exploding in the conflicts in Iraq and in Syria, and across the hills and caves of Pakistan.

The U.S. has several options in combating this threat in Iraq and elsewhere. Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations claims that President Obama can make military and intelligence aid dependent on Prime Minister al-Maliki’s democratic standards and legitimacy. Notable American military advisor Fred Kagan contends that the violence is the result of the Iraqi’s military lack of counterterrorism capabilities, leading to mass arrests which polarized Sunni and Shia Muslims against each other. Both factions are needed for Iraqi in the long term to function as a democracy and as a sovereign state.

AQI Leadership captured or killed courtesy of the Long War Journal.

In order to be effective against al-Qaeda, the United States has to work on a sui generis basis with the states threatened by the network’s influence to meet the specific domestic needs of a democratic country. The threat of terrorist networking, however, is inherently transnational, and in order to be effective must incorporate bilateral agreements in the broader multilateral strategic scope of the Middle East and North Africa region, which can be achieved using the American foreign policy apparatus of the Department of Defense, Department of State, and American intelligence agencies working with nongovernmental organizations to coordinate security strategies. The specific key with Iraq is balancing the interest of both the Sunni and Shia Muslims for a better functioning democracy. If al-Maliki can extend trust and cooperation to the Sunni community through aid, development, and political enfranchisement, then al-Qaeda appear as a less viable option to once-frustrated Iraqis. Iraq is more than a country; it is the foci of the Middle East, where stability or terror will triumph in the long term depending on the level of democratic inclusion achieved.

 

Viable Links:

USA Today Article: http://usatoday.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

Long War Journal: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/11/targeting_al_qaeda_i_1.php